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AI-Based Demand Forecasting Case Study: Parcel Delivery

A predictive analytics solution using AI and historical logistics data to optimize delivery operations, reduce costs, and meet fluctuating demand in real time.

This AI-powered demand forecasting system was built for a national parcel delivery network to predict package volumes across sorting hubs and delivery zones. Leveraging machine learning algorithms and real-time signals (such as order placement rates, weather, and traffic), the system provides accurate short-term and long-term demand forecasts. The solution dynamically allocates fleet capacity, warehouse labor, and routing priorities based on forecasted volume spikes or drops—minimizing idle resources and reducing delivery delays. It has empowered operations managers to make proactive decisions, optimize supply chain flow, and consistently meet SLAs during high-demand seasons like festivals, sales, or weather disruptions.

AI-Based Demand Forecasting Case Study: Parcel Delivery
Location

MENA

Industry

FINTECH

Team Size

10 people

Duration

9 months

Challenges

01.

Challenges
  • Parcel volume varied drastically by region, time of day, and season, making it difficult to plan staffing and fleet deployment accurately using traditional methods.

  • Operations often struggled to respond fast enough to sudden spikes in demand during promotions or holidays, resulting in missed SLAs and customer dissatisfaction.

  • Forecasting required aggregating data from multiple systems (order management, traffic APIs, warehouse sensors), complicating integration and increasing latency.

02.

Solution
  • Developed a machine learning model trained on historical parcel data, real-time order trends, and environmental factors to predict demand by location and time window.

  • Integrated the AI model with logistics and fleet management platforms to automatically recommend resource allocation for warehouses and delivery routes.

  • Created an interactive dashboard for operations managers to visualize forecast accuracy, adjust constraints, and receive alerts on anomalies or demand surges.

  • Enabled real-time adjustments based on traffic conditions, weather forecasts, and order spikes through live data feeds and feedback loops into the model.

Solution

OUR INPUT

AI Model Development

AI Model Development

Data Visualization Interface

Data Visualization Interface

Predictive Analytics UX Design

Predictive Analytics UX Design

Logistics Forecasting Consulting

Logistics Forecasting Consulting

Agile Project Management

Agile Project Management

RESULT

We're proud of reaching new heights with our customers, helping them achieve advanced levels of scalability and stability.

Kriva TechOur Features
App Functionality
Demand Forecast Dashboard
Demand Forecast Dashboard
Regional Volume Predictions
Regional Volume Predictions
Real-Time Order Monitoring
Real-Time Order Monitoring
Fleet & Resource Allocation
Fleet & Resource Allocation
Historical Trend Analysis
Historical Trend Analysis
Traffic & Weather Data Sync
Traffic & Weather Data Sync
Operational Load Balancer
Operational Load Balancer
Forecast Accuracy Tracking
Forecast Accuracy Tracking
Warehouse Shift Planning
Warehouse Shift Planning
Capacity Utilization Reports
Capacity Utilization Reports
SLA Risk Alerts
SLA Risk Alerts
Interactive Forecast Adjustments
Interactive Forecast Adjustments
Kriva Tech
Kriva TechWhat we offers

HOW WE DID IT

Volume Data Consolidation
Volume Data Consolidation

We gathered historical parcel delivery records, regional traffic logs, and external datasets like weather patterns into a unified forecasting data lake.

Collaborative Planning with Operations Teams
Collaborative Planning with Operations Teams

Worked closely with warehouse managers, logistics coordinators, and data scientists to map operational pain points and customize forecasting outputs per region.

 AI Model Training and Optimization
AI Model Training and Optimization

Trained and fine-tuned machine learning models (LSTM and XGBoost) for short-term and long-term demand prediction using temporal and geospatial data inputs.

Role-Based Forecast Access
Role-Based Forecast Access

Enabled segmented access for logistics planners, regional heads, and analysts with dashboards tailored to their operational areas and KPIs.

Scalable Cloud Deployment
Scalable Cloud Deployment

Deployed the forecasting engine on a containerized, autoscaling AWS environment—ensuring high availability across nationwide parcel hubs.

Continuous Feedback Loop
Continuous Feedback Loop

Set up real-time feedback channels from live operations to continuously retrain the models and improve prediction accuracy over time.

Kriva Tech

Technologies we Used

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Python
kotlin.svg
scikit-learn
swift.svg
XGBoost
react (1).svg
AWS SageMaker
aws-2.svg
AWS Lambda

Creation Process

  • Initial Research and Team Structuring

    • Conducted in-depth analysis of parcel delivery data sources, seasonal fluctuations, and regional dependencies.
    • Formed a cross-functional team including data scientists, logistics consultants, and front-end engineers.
    • Outlined forecasting goals aligned with operational KPIs and resource optimization.
    Initial Research and Team Structuring
  • Identifying Core Functionalities and Features

    • Defined forecast granularity (hourly/daily) per zone and service type (standard, express).
    • Integrated with traffic APIs, order systems, and warehouse schedules for live input streams.
    • Developed alert mechanisms and fallback plans for over/under forecast deviations.
    Identifying Core Functionalities and Features
  • Understanding Business Needs and Technical Requirements

    • Collaborated with supply chain leads to prioritize resource allocation use cases (fleet, labor).
    • Chose scalable ML models suited for time-series and anomaly detection.
    • Ensured low-latency architecture using stream processing and cloud-native deployments.
    Understanding Business Needs and Technical Requirements
  • Strategic Planning for Application Enhancement

    • Set up CI/CD pipelines for continuous model improvements and data feedback loops.
    • Enabled business teams to simulate demand scenarios using adjustable input sliders.
    • Built APIs for downstream systems to consume forecast output in real-time for automation.
    Strategic Planning for Application Enhancement
Kriva TechContact Us

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We follow a structured approach, starting with an in-depth consultation to understand your requirements. Our team then drafts a clear project roadmap, ensuring transparency and regular updates throughout development. From prototyping to testing and deployment, we work collaboratively to bring your vision to life.

Can LasyaAitech help us scale our existing software or migrate to new technology?

Absolutely! We specialize in upgrading existing systems, improving performance, and enabling seamless migration to modern technologies. Our team ensures minimal downtime and a smooth transition tailored to your growth objectives.

Why should I choose LasyaAitech over other software development companies?

With a proven track record of delivering successful projects like MailBluster and ThemeWagon, we combine technical expertise with a client-first approach. Our agile methods and attention to detail ensure we exceed expectations and deliver measurable results.

How do you ensure the security and scalability of your solutions?

We prioritize security at every stage of development, implementing industry-best practices to protect your data and systems. Our solutions are designed to be scalable, allowing your business to grow without limitations, ensuring long-term success.

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